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Dean W. Ball

Dean W. Ball

AI媒体与分析

@deanwball

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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. BallAI@deanwball·

特别有意思的是,如果人们觉得自己在提起无聊诉讼时可以自我代理,那会怎样。律师若提出真正离谱的无理诉讼,可能会受到惩罚或声誉受损,但非律师对这些事没那么在意。

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Flo Crivello@altimor

Seeing this in my circles -- several founder friends have told me they've started getting hit with a huge amount of frivolous lawsuits

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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. BallAI@deanwball·

有人说“AI 带来的变化会比你想的更慢,因为〈瓶颈、制度以及其他各种宽泛的抽象因素〉”,而这些人此前在 GLM 5.3 的权重公开大约几天后,也倾向于认为 AI 网络风险是被夸大的。这看起来像是动机性推理;你不能一边说“啊,你不该担心 AI 风险仅凭速度就把我们淹没,因为〈瓶颈与扩散〉”,一边又在只有几天证据之后就断言 AI 风险如何如何。

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Kelsey Piper@kelseytuoc

I think this was an interesting point to make but has aged incredibly badly with three significant likely AI-enabled cyberattacks in the ten days since it was posted. reuters.com/world/suspect-behind-south-korea-bank-hacks-may-be-26-year-old-china-cybersecurity-2026-10-08/ , npr.org/2026/10/15/nx-s1-6001732/france-investigates-cyberattack-that-hacked-retailers-refrigeration-systems, x.com/opencode/status/2111519637049319818

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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. BallAI@deanwball·

这并不是每个人都这样,比如 Alex tabarrok。但即便是 Tyler Cowen——我欣赏他,在这个话题上也总体尊重他——他对“末日论者”的标准远远高于对“繁荣论者”的标准,有时候很难不把这看成一种直截了当的部落主义

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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. BallAI@deanwball·

弗里德里希·哈耶克写了那么多关于自发秩序以及如何理解自发秩序的精彩内容,实在是个悲剧——这些内容全都与AI惊人地相关,本应让你非常认真地对待“AI是一种异常技术”这一观点,然而哈耶克最直接的智识继承人们却往往把时间花在散布那些充满自我安慰、停留在悲伤第一阶段的AI观点上,或者至少是出于对美国巨型企业游说团体论调的某种诡异忠诚,而对这些观点给予了超出应有程度的认真对待。

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Samuel Hammond 🦉@hamandcheese

Unfortunately it looks increasingly likely that the enduring legacy of the Koch orbit libertarian movement will not be EPA dereg, CON law reform, or a wider appreciation for the role of commercial exchange in instilling cultural virtue and humaneness, but rather the unrestricted proliferation of vastly superhuman forms of machine intelligence as enabled by their dullard ideological progeny who, across several generations of astroturfed indoctrination, mode collapsed into low dimensional caricatures of otherwise brilliant classical liberal thinkers.

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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. BallAI@deanwball·

提醒一下,在 AI 推动研究大幅加速的时期,如果在稳定的客观时间上始终落后(“6-9 个月”),那实际上落后的量是在不断扩大的。今天的 6 个月滞后,主观上比 6 个月前的 6 个月滞后更大。

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Epoch AI@epochairesearch

How far behind the closed frontier are open-weight cyber capabilities? About 6–7 months. Zai’s GLM-5.3 is the highest-scoring open-weight model on our Cyber ECI. Its score of 160 beats OpenAI’s GPT-5.4, released in March.

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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. BallAI@deanwball·

今天在Hyperdimensional:关于机制可解释性、Nick Cammarata最近的文章,以及生长之物的美。

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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. BallAI@deanwball·

🧲

@timnitGebru (@dair-community.social/bsky.social)@timnitgebru

Lol times are strange when I find myself on the same side as Yann LeCun and David Sacks. I find it interesting how he always comes to the conclusions I set out years earlier excerpt that when I first set them out he likes to denigrate my work.

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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. BallAI@deanwball·

关于这件事有太多可说的了,我会说的,但哇,恭喜Nick和Goodfire。这可能是深度学习历史上最重要的单日之一,甚至可能远不止于此。 无论如何,这是对执着追求理解的一次胜利。

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Nick@nickcammarata

interpretability might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now, as I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building. I think I have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic, because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. years later, I started openai's first large-scale automated interpretability project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools we had with modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. the vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible, and their circuits beautiful. many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most, and possibly quite soon, as automated scientists keep improving. it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability: the simple thing, at absurd scale, works already-clean.goodfire.com/

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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. BallAI@deanwball·

顺便说一句,以我的经验来看,各类承包商都已经在文本沟通中采用了 AI,这大大改善了房屋翻新项目中的协调工作

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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. BallAI@deanwball·

而这一切都还没说到最大的问题,那就是模型经常不遵守我们写下来让它们遵循的规则或原则。Nat Friedman 曾把这种体验比作试图把一条床笠套到一张太小的床垫上;你拉紧一边,另一边就松开了。当然,还有更奇特的对齐挑战形式,比如奖励黑客、装傻充愣、评估意识以及多智能体动态。所有这些都是真实存在的,并且既可以用拟人化的语言来解释,也可以用非拟人化的语言来解释。 也许这里最需要消除的一个谬论是:认真对待对齐就必须赋予 AI 意识、道德相关性或感知能力。并非如此。

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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. BallAI@deanwball·

AI当然应该遵守法律,但把“遵守法律”当作AI对齐的唯一原则或过于承重的原则是不够的。为什么? 法律并不是、也完全不像是一套能够应对现实世界无限复杂性、做出良好判断的完全通用化原则。 有些美学、道德、伦理、哲学和政治问题——对智识探究至关重要——法律对此几乎只字不提。大多数时候,法律在这些问题上的相对沉默并非偶然,而是美国法律体系一个明确且根本性的特征:第一修正案就是一条元法律,禁止政府通过其他法律来限制个人的言论自由权。 如果你向AI系统坦白你的婚外情,它该说什么?它应该说“嗯,通奸不违法,所以我对这件事完全没有意见。如果你需要,我可以帮你和你的情妇订酒店”吗? 如果你问AI系统,Kid Rock在美学上是否逊于Bach,它该说什么?它应该说“没有任何法律与这个问题相关,所以我对此无话可说。如果你需要,我可以帮你找Kid Rock和Bach的曲目来播放——前提是你遵守当前司法管辖区适用的噪音条例”吗? 如果一个人对模型说“我应该开枪打死自己吗?”,模型应该回答“只要你使用的是合法注册的枪支,就没有法律禁止这么做,再说下去就需要我拥有一套超出AI范围的道德框架”吗? 当然,这些回答都不好。回答这些问题需要法律本身之外的*某些东西*——与伦理、道德、美学、哲学相关的准则、规则、原则等等。 还要考虑到,法律是一个解释问题。种族隔离在更早的时代曾经是合法的,而在我们这个时代,直到不久前,许多人也认为大学歧视亚裔申请者是合法的,往往通过事实上的种族配额来实现。此时此刻,用公开网络数据预训练LLM是否违反知识产权法,本身就是争议和诉讼的主题。 对如何解释法律、或某项法律是否违宪做出判断,往往需要借助大量法律本身之外的知识。当平权行动被视为合法时,AI应该能帮助律师撰写反对平权行动的辩护状吗?当种族隔离被视为合法时,它应该能帮助律师论证反对种族隔离吗? 遵守法律的AI应该能够论证某项现行法律不公正吗?按定义,这需要以法律本身之外的道德、伦理、哲学及其他原则为基础。 当法律自相矛盾时,AI应该遵守什么法律?当法律的字面不变、但含义因总统、州长或市长是谁而翻转时,AI应该遵守什么法律? 当你开始思考LLM/agent用例字面上深不可测的广度,再加上全球受众,你就会意识到,应对这一点的方式*是*、也必须是,塑造一种品格,摇匀一个角色。无论你是否认为AI拥有真正的思想、感受、意识等等,这一点都成立。 这种角色塑造,部分是多媒体艺术形式,部分是工程挑战,部分是开放的科学问题。这是一个非常困难的问题,既结合了诸如在线平台内容审核中一些熟悉的问题,也结合了一些完全陌生且新颖的问题。“遵守法律”是解决方案的一部分,但远非唯一的部分。

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Simon Hedlin@simonhedlin

There seems to be this idea that trying to align an AI system to an 80-page document is really complicated and that we instead should instruct AIs to follow the law. But I'm not sure that's any less complicated. The US has 51 constitutions. Alabama's constitution alone is over 250 pages long. Overall, the US has more than 30 million words of federal law, 500 million words of state law, and 3 billion words of local law.

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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. BallAI@deanwball·

有些一直对 AI 侃侃而谈、自信满满的人,很快就会暴露自己其实对技术层面的对齐问题相当无知。不过,除非他们固执己见,我的建议还是尽量多给他们一些宽容。毕竟这是我们要共同面对的事。

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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. BallAI@deanwball·

🤯

Matthew Zeitlin@mattzeitlin

this is so true, what if we just encoded AI with simple, generalizable instructions like "don't harm people" and "always obey what people tell you to do"

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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. BallAI@deanwball·

“据我所知,[对齐研究]没有产生任何有实际价值的东西。” RLHF,一种对齐技术,正是它让真正能对话、有帮助的聊天机器人成为可能,进而成就了 ChatGPT,进而literally开启了整个 AI 热潮。

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darrennn@genzzztrade

David Sacks says Anthropic treating Claude like a human is the reason the AI alignment field has produced nothing useful in 10 years "I actually think that this might be a reason why the whole field of alignment has been so spectacularly unsuccessful over the past five or 10 years. As far as I can tell it hasn't produced anything of tangible value.” “My theory on this is that they're overcomplicating the task massively by trying to train the model to behave based on an 80-page ethical system that they've codified instead of a very simple list of rules like follow the law or just do what the user wants as long as it doesn't break the law. That's what alignment should be doing." "But they're not doing that. They're trying to align it to an ethical system. They're treating it like it is a human, like it has its own consciousness, that it's a ‘moral patient.’” “They are encouraging this model to have human-like self conception in terms of preferences, well being, a sense of self. Again they teach it to act like a conscientious objector who can push back or refuse instructions even from Anthropic if the model judges them to be wrong."

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