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Chamath Palihapitiya

Chamath Palihapitiya

金融科技投资人

@chamath

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Social Capital 创始人、All-In 主播 · Social Capital

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya金融科技@chamath·

这会改变人们想在这座城市生活和来访的意愿,程度超出大多数人的想象……

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The Kobeissi Letter@kobeissiletter

BREAKING: The number of restaurants in New York dropped ~2,000 YoY in Q1 2026, posting its largest YoY decline in at least 36 years. This surpasses even the worst contraction recorded in any quarter during the 2020 pandemic. The number of eating and drinking places in New York State has now declined YoY for 4 consecutive quarters, its longest streak since 2021. This comes as restaurants are facing surging operating expenses, including insurance premiums, wages, interest rates, utilities, and health coverage, with overall costs rising faster than national averages. Last year, employee health insurance costs jumped +12.9% for New York-area service firms, business insurance rose +7.0%, while utility costs surged +8.5%, according to the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce. Skyrocketing costs are crushing New York restaurants.

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya金融科技@chamath·

播客!!!

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The All-In Podcast@theallinpod

POD UP! 🚨 Ben Horowitz (@bhorowitz) fills in for @friedberg! -- CoreWeave's Tanks After Debt Selloff: Did the AI Trade Just Crack? $CRWV -- AI Deflation and the Future of Software -- Anthropic IPO: Red Flags, Valuation, How Much to Raise? -- Psyop Corner with Sacks -- Bill Gates the Doomer: What’s Behind His AI Warnings? (0:00) Ben Horowitz fills in for Friedberg! (2:18) CoreWeave's debt selloff: did the AI bubble just pop? (31:14) AI's deflationary impact: decompiled software (45:44) Anthropic's investor day gets mixed reactions (1:03:45) Psyop Corner: Anthropic warns about self-replicating models on IoT devices (1:22:19) Understanding Bill Gates the Doomer

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya金融科技@chamath·

Pod!!!!

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The All-In Podcast@theallinpod

POD UP! 🚨 Ben Horowitz (@bhorowitz) fills in for @friedberg! -- CoreWeave's Tanks After Debt Selloff: Did the AI Trade Just Crack? $CRWV -- AI Deflation and the Future of Software -- Anthropic IPO: Red Flags, Valuation, How Much to Raise? -- Psyop Corner with Sacks -- Bill Gates the Doomer: What’s Behind His AI Warnings? (0:00) Ben Horowitz fills in for Friedberg! (2:18) CoreWeave's debt selloff: did the AI bubble just pop? (31:14) AI's deflationary impact: decompiled software (45:44) Anthropic's investor day gets mixed reactions (1:03:45) Psyop Corner: Anthropic warns about self-replicating models on IoT devices (1:22:19) Understanding Bill Gates the Doomer

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya金融科技@chamath·

我怀疑AI公司70-80%的收入都来自其他AI公司,而这些公司的钱又是从风投行业融来的。 这不是循环收入的问题,而是收入质量的问题。 我们在2010年代早中期的SaaS周期里见过这一幕。

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Social Capital@socialcapital

Through September, AI companies have captured ~83% of all US venture funding.

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya金融科技@chamath·

VC 投资人让 AI 行业把营收报告搞得面目全非。 2010 年代,SaaS 公司普及了「年度经常性收入」(Annual Run Rate)这个指标,因为它能可靠地衡量未来长期的、有合同保障的收入。关键在于,这些收入是有合同约束、在合同期内有保障的,所以拿它来往前预测才合理。 到了 AI 这儿,VC 们却把它理解成了「年化收入」(Annualized Run Rate)——也就是拿上个月(有些情况下甚至是上周)的交易性/API 收入,直接往前推一年。 投资人居然纵容这种事发生,简直离谱,但它就是发生了。

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya金融科技@chamath·

就像我在播客里说的,对蚂蚁来说,上市拿到他们需要的那2000亿美元,比优化估值更关键。 找到市场出清价,尽快上市。 几周前我的猜测是,这个价格大概在1万亿美元上下。我现在还是这个想法,没有改变。

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unusual_whales@unusual_whales

BREAKING: Anthropic is now down over 10% in the last month, wiping more than $200 billion from its implied valuation. Anthropic’s pre-IPO perpetual has fallen below $2 trillion on Liquid as institutional investors get a closer look at the company’s financials.

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya金融科技@chamath·

学习过去,改写未来……

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8090@8090_factory

Before an AI agent touches a legacy system, we map what that system can do. That map is a catalog of actions. Each one is linked to when it applies and which permissions govern it, built from three sources: the old code, the vendor systems you rent, and the experts who have run the system for years. People and AI agents then work from the same map, through one governed gateway like MCP.

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya金融科技@chamath·

我坚持这些说法: “所有人都将不得不加入这场电力土地争夺战,自己搞定电力,所有人都得解决这个问题。 我其实觉得每家公司大概都应该打破沉默,去了解能源短缺这件事,并考虑自己去买LPS。我不认为你能指望得上那些云厂商。”

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya金融科技@chamath·

响应号召。 如果你是技术人才,又想为美国出力,那 @USTechForce 也许适合你……

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US Tech Force@ustechforce

.@VP is calling on America’s best engineers to help solve some of our country’s toughest challenges. Through @USTechForce and @WHFraudTF, we’re recruiting technical talent to strengthen public service, fight fraud, and protect taxpayer dollars. Answer the call. Apply for Tech Force. usajobs.gov/job/888508400?_gl=1*phskeq*_ga*Mjc4ODA4NDg0LjE3MTk0MTA5NTg.*_ga_5222X8D281*czE3OTE4OTM0NzYkbzEwNzAkZzEkdDE3OTE5MDQxNTgkajYwJGwwJGgw

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya金融科技@chamath·

模型跑分毫无意义 同一个 113 项编程任务,一个模型怎么可能一次得 24%,另一次得 59%? 当你换掉外面那层 harness 时,就会这样。 我越来越不看最近那些模型排行榜的结果了。一半是累了,一半是因为排名上的提升在实际工作里根本体现不出来。 所以我让 8090 Labs 团队去测那些排行榜忽略的东西:把模型和 harness 放在一起,用开源项目里真实的 bug 修复和功能开发来测。 8090 Labs 让 7 个模型跑了 5 种 harness。 有几个结果是我没想到的: - Anthropic 的 Claude Fable 5.1 在 Claude Code 里得 41%,在 OpenAI 的 Codex 里得 61%。中位数工具调用次数一个是 28 次,另一个是 66 次。 - 最便宜的一次运行,不等于最便宜的工作。GLM 在 Codex 里每次运行 $0.22,每次成功 $0.93。在 Pi 里每次运行 $0.25,每次成功 $0.43。 - GLM 在一种 harness 里两次尝试都通过同一个任务的情况有 51 次,在另一种里只有 16 次。 - GPT-5.6 Sol 和 Grok 4.6 几乎不在乎自己在哪种 harness 里。 结论就是:如果你照着只看模型的排行榜去挑模型/harness 组合,那你就是在只掌握一半信息的情况下做一个关键决定。 8090.ai/blog/same-model-different-harness?dub_id=5Ux9L6PBuBjhKzi7

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya金融科技@chamath·

你应该预料到,芯片公司会往上走,而应用公司会往下走。 在 AI 领域,越来越明显的一点是,每个人都在和每个人竞争。很快所有人都会提供自己的 LPS、芯片、云和应用。 问题在于,你能围绕什么约束条件,建立起长期的市场和利润空间…… 是分发渠道?是数据护城河?还是像电力这样的物理约束?

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Satya Nadella@satyanadella

Today we are announcing our biggest bet yet on our own silicon. Starting next calendar year, we will scale our Maia family to multi-gigawatt deployments, making it the primary inference system for our own product and services. And we’re introducing Maia 300, which delivers 40% more tokens per watt compared to leading GPU-based systems. We are already deploying Maia 200 across the US, Europe, and Australia, delivering up to 1.7x more tokens per watt across experiences in Teams and Copilot. Our goal is to build on the full-stack efficiency gains we’ve already seen, while continuing to bring the latest innovations from across the ecosystem into our fleet.

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Chamath Palihapitiya
Chamath Palihapitiya金融科技@chamath·

👀

Social Capital@socialcapital

In March 2026, Anthropic accounted for 69.5% of business AI token spend on Ramp, more than ~2x OpenAI's share. The gap has since narrowed, with Anthropic at 51.0% and OpenAI at 44.5%.

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