Richard Teng

Inflation is rising. The turning point may already be close. September CPI reached 3.7% YoY. The selloff was sharp. But higher energy prices and base effects had already set the stage for this rebound. Here is the path our baseline suggests: • October: the current inflation rebound could peak. • Year-end: inflation stays elevated, with gradual cooling. • March 2027: relief becomes more visible as spring 2026’s high energy prices enter the annual comparison. This assumes energy prices ease and other CPI contributions remain steady. Oil does not need to collapse for base effects to help. The risk is another energy shock or renewed underlying inflation pressure. For now, there is reason to look beyond the immediate scare. The market is feeling the inflation squeeze. The window for relief may already be approaching.

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